{"id":24424,"date":"2026-09-16T09:18:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T09:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theme-dev.cmsmasters.net\/newspaper\/?p=24424"},"modified":"2026-09-21T09:38:12","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T09:38:12","slug":"no-breakthrough-as-ukraine-claims-russia-misled-them","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/veracitypapers.com\/fr\/no-breakthrough-as-ukraine-claims-russia-misled-them\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9conomie sous si\u00e8ge : la contraction de l\u2019Iran en 2026 et les limites du contournement des sanctions"},"content":{"rendered":"
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I. The Shock: Macroeconomic Collapse<\/h2>\n

The Iranian economy is experiencing its most severe peacetime disruption since the 1980s. The World Bank estimates GDP contracted by 2.7% in the Iranian year ending March 2026, with projections of a 9.2% contraction for 2026 as a whole. The rial has lost 44% of its value year-on-year, inflation reached 62.2% in February 2026, and food price inflation hit a historic 99%.<\/p>\n

These figures reflect not merely sanctions pressure but the compounding impact of the February 2026 war, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the collapse of maritime trade. The Central Bank has acknowledged that foreign trade contracted by roughly 35%. Critically, the government\u2019s fiscal position is deteriorating: military spending has risen while oil revenues have declined, forcing greater reliance on domestic banks and monetary financing.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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II. The Mechanism: From Primary to Secondary Sanctions<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The August 2026 \u201cEconomic D-Day\u201d represents a qualitative shift in U.S. strategy. Rather than targeting Iranian entities directly, the Treasury expanded secondary sanctions to five new sectors\u2014digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping\u2014and threatened to cut off any country maintaining trade ties with Iran from dollar-based financial systems.<\/p>\n

This approach exploits Iran\u2019s remaining vulnerability: its dependence on a narrow set of trade partners and informal financial channels. The UAE\u2019s suspension of trade ties in August 2026 struck directly at Iran\u2019s shadow banking architecture, through which an estimated $43 billion in annual oil revenues were historically intermediated. US Treasury data identified $8.6 billion in Iran-linked flows through UAE and Asian financial centers in 2024, over 70% involving UAE-based firms. The loss of this hub is significant.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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However, the strategy faces structural limits. As Alan Eyre of the Middle East Institute observed, \u201cWe\u2019ve done all the low-hanging, medium-hanging and high-hanging fruit. We\u2019ve cut down the whole sanctions tree\u201d. The primary constraint is China, which purchases up to 90% of Iran\u2019s oil exports and has signaled it will not cooperate with secondary sanctions.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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See Also<\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\"\"<\/a><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Arab Cities Attracting Young People: Where Does the New Generation Want to Live?<\/a><\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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<\/i><\/span>octobre 9, 10:25 AM<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Par<\/span>documents de v\u00e9racit\u00e9<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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III. Iran\u2019s Adaptation: Three Survival Mechanisms<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Crypto-Facilitated Settlement. The Central Bank has quietly relaxed foreign exchange controls to encourage repatriation through any means, including cryptocurrencies. Traders now settle cross-border transactions through Iranian crypto exchanges using Tether and bitcoin. Nearly $10 billion in crypto moved through Iran in 2025. A business executive close to the regime stated: \u201cThe central bank doesn\u2019t ask how that money was transferred\u201d. However, the scale remains limited relative to Iran\u2019s needs, and the U.S. Treasury has explicitly targeted digital assets under the new sanctions.<\/p>\n

Barter Networks with China. A Reuters investigation revealed a secret barter mechanism through which Iran supplies crude oil to China and receives credits for purchasing Chinese goods. Over the past year, transactions worth $2\u20132.5 billion flowed through special purpose vehicles, bypassing international banking entirely. Approximately 70% funded Iranian infrastructure projects; 30% went to SPVs under Chinese and Iranian government control. This mechanism enabled procurement of pharmaceuticals, vehicles, communications equipment, and reportedly millions of dollars in air defense equipment.<\/p>\n

Free Zones and Land Routes. With maritime access restricted, Iran has redirected trade through its free zones on land borders. The Ministry of Economic Affairs tasked these zones with importing essential goods as substitute routes, particularly those in northern and eastern Iran bordering Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. A sanctioned Iranian supertanker also demonstrated the limits of the naval blockade by crossing the Strait of Hormuz with its transponder active.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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IV. The Political Calculus and Conclusion: A Constrained Equilibrium<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Iranian officials have publicly dismissed the new sanctions as ineffective. President Pezeshkian stated that \u201cAmerica will not achieve anything with economic pressure at this stage, just as it was unable to achieve anything in the war\u201d. The Central Bank governor claimed Iran has \u201cenough\u201d foreign currency and rejected hyperinflation warnings.<\/p>\n

These statements may reflect genuine assessment rather than mere rhetoric. LSE analyst Jack Roush argues that Iran\u2019s historical experience with economic coercion\u2014from the 1951\u201353 oil nationalization crisis through the Shah\u2019s diversification strategy\u2014demonstrates a consistent pattern: economic pressure inflicts costs but rarely produces political capitulation on core security interests. The current regime, made more hardline by conflict, views the standoff as existential. As one analyst noted, \u201cNuclear and military decisions aren\u2019t calculated purely in economic terms\u201d.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s 2026 economic position is unsustainable in the long run but may be survivable in the short to medium term. The regime has demonstrated a capacity to absorb pain, redirect trade, and maintain elite cohesion. However, the erosion of the UAE channel, the targeting of crypto, and the threat of Chinese non-cooperation create genuine constraints.<\/p>\n

The decisive variable is not whether sanctions inflict damage\u2014they clearly do\u2014but whether that damage translates into leverage. The evidence from 2026 suggests a negative answer. Iran appears willing to endure a lower equilibrium rather than accept what it perceives as strategic surrender. The standoff is likely to persist until either U.S. enforcement capacity reaches its political limits (particularly regarding China) or Iran\u2019s internal stability fractures\u2014neither of which is imminent.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\u00c9conomie sous si\u00e8ge : la contraction de l\u2019Iran en 2026 et les limites du contournement des sanctions<\/span>\n\t\t<\/span><\/h4>\n\t\t<\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

R\u00e9sum\u00e9 : Cet article examine la crise \u00e9conomique \u00e0 laquelle la R\u00e9publique islamique d\u2019Iran est confront\u00e9e en 2026, sous l\u2019effet cumul\u00e9 de plusieurs d\u00e9cennies de sanctions am\u00e9ricaines et de la relance, en ao\u00fbt 2026, de la campagne dite \u00ab Economic D-Day \u00bb.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28691,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"pmpro_default_level":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[22,25],"tags":[],"post_template":[83],"top_category":[77],"class_list":["post-24424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle-east","category-politics","post_template-opinion","top_category-breaking-news","pmpro-has-access"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/veracitypapers.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/veracitypapers.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/veracitypapers.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veracitypapers.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veracitypapers.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24424"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/veracitypapers.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24424\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28699,"href":"https:\/\/veracitypapers.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24424\/revisions\/28699"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veracitypapers.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28691"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/veracitypapers.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veracitypapers.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veracitypapers.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24424"},{"taxonomy":"post_template","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veracitypapers.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_template?post=24424"},{"taxonomy":"top_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veracitypapers.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/top_category?post=24424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}